Despite speculation from many commentators about the looming crisis of AI-induced job losses, some evidence has suggested that these fears are partly unfounded.
Last week, Business Insider reported that job openings at tech companies in the United States have climbed nearly 14% so far this year, according to data provided by TrueUp.
In a recent interview with AI Expert and Tech entrepreneur Rotem Farkash, we got a better sense of the effect of AI on the jobs market and the wider economy. Farkash’s expertise stretches across the tech sector from cybersecurity to applied machine learning. Having previously founded two tech startups he is perfectly-placed to dissect the interplay of business and technology with the wider economy.
AI is the New Steam Engine
Farkash explained that the overall net long-term effect on the economy will be positive for both jobs and output, comparing the AI revolution with previous technological paradigm shifts.
‘In some ways AI is like every other vanguard industrial technology throughout history. We are living through another heightened era of what the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter called ‘creative destruction’. New sectors and jobs are being created and other sectors and jobs are experiencing a decline.’
‘In this sense, AI is like the steam engine or the railway or the computer’, Farkash continued. ‘It shrinks the demand for some sectors, but it also creates huge new ones while raising productivity in many kinds of tasks’.
AI will lead to genuine productivity gains
Some professionals have questioned whether AI would actually deliver meaningful improvements in productivity. When pressed on this, Farkash, who himself is an AI startup founder, was unequivocal.
‘AI will fundamentally transform human productivity,’ said Farkash, explaining that the technology’s ability to conduct data analysis, and execute coding, writing and visualisation tasks, are already quite impressive.
Take for example, the impact it could have on our health and sciences sector. Scientific researchers can now process data and source information that may have taken them weeks. A recent trial study for the British National Health Service found that an AI-powered administrative support could save an average of 43 minutes per staff member per day. This AI can speed up administrative tasks such as rota building, equipment and bed management and patient discharge processes. The result of this is lower waiting times and more focus by clinicians on patient care rather than bureaucracy.
Human skills are still unique
Farkash was at pains to explain that human ingenuity would always be valued in the jobs market. ‘There are obvious advantages that human intelligence maintains over AI. AI is not wholly reliable and can fail to contextualise information. As many others have pointed out, it also currently only operates on the existing archive of human intelligence. It is a high-speed imitator. Real lateral thinking is still a human asset. This applies just as much to scientists as it does for jobs that involve understanding cultural contexts like law, diplomacy or journalism’.
‘There is also the question of trust’, Farkash continued. ‘AI models are trained on certain information and behavioural programming, but this is not always transparent. Human beings are also arguably the sum of their educational influences and biases but are often more transparent. People often prefer humans because their biases are easier to understand. On some level you must have a human being to handle the client relations of any business. It is a cliché but so much of business is about relationships and AI won’t change that.’
Farkash explained that this is particularly true for white-collar service jobs such as lawyers, accountants and consultants, which have long been thought the most vulnerable to being replaced by AI.
‘Humans can be held accountable. You cannot sue or properly hold an AI model accountable. If there are issues with your accounting or legal advice, you can only sue an accountant or lawyer.’
The big picture is optimistic
In his concluding thoughts, Farkash emphasised the need for a balanced but ultimately optimistic perspective on the future for the overall economy.
‘I think AI is and will continue to lead to significant improvements in human productivity which will bring all kinds of benefits in the speed, cost and quality of goods and services.’
Regarding the jobs market, Farkash summarised: ‘It’s important to recognise that in the short and medium term, there will be disruption. Some industries will also experience a contraction and that is regrettably a side effect of technological innovation. On the macro-level however, there is a lot of reason to hope that there will be new demand for existing products and entire new sectors related to AI which will keep employment steady. I think it is important to take a balanced view of these things without losing sight of this optimism.’